What we compare
For each city and fuel grade, we compare the forecast price with the price later reported for that date and convert the gap into cents per litre.
Model report card
Predictor accuracy — back-tested against actual prices
Comparison of past 30-day predictions against actual daily city averages. Refreshes nightly.
Awaiting first back-test cycle
How we measure
Methodology in one screen
FuelRadar checks each forecast against the prices later reported for the same market and fuel grade.
Mean absolute error
Mean absolute error is the average size of those misses. It shows the typical cents-per-litre difference without letting high and low misses cancel each other out.
Window
Last 90 days only. The model recalibrates nightly, so older predictions reflect an earlier version and would skew the headline.
Minimum sample size
A city/fuel pair needs at least 3 back-test points to appear. Pairs with fewer data points are hidden rather than reported with a misleadingly small denominator.
Not enough back-test data yet
The predictor needs at least three days of past predictions matched against actual prices before we publish a city in the back-test table. Check back tomorrow once the nightly job has had a chance to catch up.
Next step
See where you sit in the cycle
This page shows the wider market. The map adds reported station prices, distance, fuel type and directions — so you know whether to fill up now or wait.
Price alerts Nearby stations Mobile app
Common questions
Predictor accuracy FAQ
Fuel prices move in small increments — a 2-cent miss is a different outcome than a 20-cent miss. MAE measures the actual magnitude of the error rather than a binary right/wrong; it is a common way to show typical forecast error.