Fuel price forecast: when will petrol go down?

U91 · 8 capitals · as of Thu 12 NovOutlooks updated

U91 is estimated lower in a week in 6 of 8 capitals; the biggest fall is Perth, about 6.6 c/L by Thu 19 Nov.

Estimate only: past 7-day estimates missed by about 4.5 c/L on average, only slightly less than assuming prices stay the same (4.7 c/L).

Cheapest today: Perth · 214.3 c/L
Highest: Darwin · 240.1 c/L

FuelWatch has confirmed 204.0 c/L for Perth on Fri 13 Nov, down 10.3 c/L on today. Elsewhere, tomorrow's U91 estimates are lower than today in Canberra, Hobart, Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne and Adelaide; about level in Darwin.

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Why prices are moving

U91 · as of Thu 12 Nov

National average

The national U91 average is at its 30-day low: 226.6 c/L on , down 18.8 c/L from its high on .

Cheapest day

Wednesday was cheapest in Perth in 12 of 12 full weeks.

Forecasts for every town

U91: where today's forecast covers a town, its latest city daily average, where it sits in its price cycle and its call. City daily averages, not station prices; a town's call is checked against its own past estimates.

New South Wales

37 towns

Victoria

27 towns

Queensland

21 towns

Western Australia

10 towns

South Australia

11 towns

Australian Capital Territory

1 town

Northern Territory

2 towns

Tasmania

5 towns

How accurate is the forecast?

How we forecast: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth follow their usual price cycles; Adelaide, Canberra, Darwin and Hobart follow their recent trend, blended with the latest five-day change in wholesale prices. After a market-wide move, the Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth cycle estimates restate their lows and highs at today's price level. Each estimate starts from the city's daily average of reported station prices, and its likely range widens with each day ahead.

Next-day city estimates missed by 0.7 c/L on average, no better than assuming prices stay the same (0.8 c/L). Past 7-day estimates missed by about 4.5 c/L on average, only slightly less than assuming prices stay the same (4.7 c/L).

Forecast test results

See your city's fuel forecast in the app

The 7-day forecast, a fill-now-or-wait call each day and price alerts. Free on iPhone and Android.

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FuelRadar app Today screen with the fill-up call for Brisbane and the cheapest Unleaded 91 within 15 km
FuelRadar app fuel map with Unleaded 91 prices around Brisbane, each marked Cheap, Average or Pricey

App preview. Prices shown are example captures, not current reports.

Forecast questions

When will petrol prices go down?

U91 7-day estimates are higher than today in 1 and lower in 6 of 8 capitals (as of Thu 12 Nov). The largest expected fall is Perth, about 6.6 c/L by Thu 19 Nov. Past 7-day estimates missed by about 4.5 c/L on average, only slightly less than assuming prices stay the same (4.7 c/L). Wednesday was cheapest in Perth in 12 of 12 full weeks. Estimates only: check current station prices before you buy.

Is petrol going up?

U91 7-day estimates are higher than today in 1 and lower in 6 of 8 capitals (as of Thu 12 Nov). Higher in Darwin; lower in Perth, Sydney, Hobart, Adelaide, Brisbane and Melbourne; about level in Canberra. The largest expected rise is Darwin, about 0.8 c/L by Thu 19 Nov. The largest expected fall is Perth, about 6.6 c/L by Thu 19 Nov. Past 7-day estimates missed by about 4.5 c/L on average, only slightly less than assuming prices stay the same (4.7 c/L). Estimates only: check current station prices before you buy.

What is the fuel price prediction for next week?

FuelRadar's U91 estimates for Thu 19 Nov, cheapest first: Perth 207.7 c/L (down 6.6), Adelaide 211.6 c/L (down 2.7), Sydney 214.2 c/L (down 5.1), Brisbane 217.4 c/L (down 2.4), Melbourne 219.1 c/L (down 2.3), Hobart 228.4 c/L (down 4.4), Canberra 232.1 c/L (no change) and Darwin 240.9 c/L (up 0.8). Past 7-day estimates missed by about 4.5 c/L on average, only slightly less than assuming prices stay the same (4.7 c/L). Estimates only: check current station prices before you buy.

Is fuel going up tomorrow?

FuelWatch has confirmed 204.0 c/L for Perth on Fri 13 Nov, down 10.3 c/L on today. Elsewhere, tomorrow's U91 estimates are lower than today in Canberra, Hobart, Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne and Adelaide; about level in Darwin. Next-day city estimates missed by 0.7 c/L on average, no better than assuming prices stay the same (0.8 c/L). Estimates only: check current station prices before you buy.

When will diesel prices come down?

Diesel does not usually follow the petrol price cycle, so there is no regular low to wait for. Over the 30 days to Thu 12 Nov, the diesel city daily average fell in 8 of 8 capitals; the largest fall was Adelaide, 23.4 c/L. The national wholesale diesel price was 257.0 c/L on Fri 6 Nov, down 9.7 c/L over five days. FuelRadar names no date for a fall: each capital's diesel forecast gives its day-by-day estimate and likely range.

What is the best day to buy U91 in Australia?

No single day applies across Australia: in Perth, Wednesday was the lowest day in 12 of 12 recent full weeks. The other capitals showed no consistently cheaper weekday.

How accurate is FuelRadar Australia's U91 price outlook?

Not accurate enough yet to tell you to fill or wait, so we don't. From 10 Oct to 8 Nov our next-day U91 forecasts were off by 0.7 c/L on average over 3213 city-day checks. Assuming prices wouldn't move was just as close.

How long are U91 price cycles in each capital?

Over the last 90 days, U91 prices cycled in Perth about every 7 days.