Outlook rising
If the outlook points to a meaningful jump in the next week, consider filling sooner if you need fuel.
Outlook
Melbourne Fuel Price Outlook
See whether Melbourne petrol looks likely to jump, ease or stay steady. Outlook built on 90 days of price history.
30-day outlookNightly recalibrationMelbourne
How to read the outlook
Turn the outlook into a price check
The chart shows an estimated direction for the next 30 days. Use it as timing guidance, then check current reports at nearby stations.
Outlook flat or easing
If you can wait, recheck before filling a full tank. Small movements can still matter when you combine timing with a cheaper station.
Confidence matters
The signal is usually strongest in cycle-driven markets such as Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. In Adelaide and regional areas it leans more on national trend signals.
Methodology
How the predictor works
A short method note showing what feeds the forecast, the timeframes it is calibrated for and where it stops being useful.
Inputs
90 days of daily city-average prices per fuel type, terminal gate prices from the Australian Institute of Petroleum, AUD/USD exchange rates, Brent crude oil prices, and the detected position within the current local price cycle.
Forecast method
The forecast checks the city's recent price cycle, then smooths the last 90 days of prices to estimate the next likely move. It shows a guide price and likely range, with later dates treated as less certain.
Refresh cadence
Outlooks refresh overnight. Same-day price moves are not reflected until the next refresh, so use the map for reported station prices and update times.
Calibration
The outlook is most useful over the next week in cycle-heavy markets such as Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. Use the cents figure as a guide. Adelaide and many regional cities have weaker cycle signals, so national trend data carries more weight.
Known blind spots
Sudden retailer-led resets, refinery outages, geopolitical shocks to crude, and public-holiday demand spikes are not modelled. After such events the prediction may need 1–2 days to re-anchor on the new baseline.
Source data quality
Reporting rules and feed timing differ by state. NSW, Queensland and Victoria use government-backed reporting, while WA publishes fixed daily prices. Timing signals inherit source delays, so check the station update time before driving.
Receipts
See how the forecast is checked
- FuelRadar matches saved forecasts with prices later reported for the same city and fuel type. Once a city has enough samples, the accuracy page publishes the average difference in cents per litre and the sample size.
Common questions
Price forecast FAQ
Cycle-heavy capital cities such as Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth usually have the clearest short-term signals. The cents figure is a guide, not a promise. Adelaide and many regional centres rely more on national trend data and have wider likely ranges.