Melbourne U91 price forecast
As of Thu 12 Nov, Melbourne U91 averages 221.4 c/L, and FuelRadar estimates it will fall about 2.3 c/L to 219.1 c/L by Thu 19 Nov.
U91Outlook updated
Likely to fall
Estimate only: prices may fall about 3.4 c/L by Sun 15 Nov, then sit about 2.3 c/L below today by Thu 19 Nov.
More about this price
Over the last 55 days, 7-day estimates missed by 5.7 c/L on average; "no change" missed by 6.0 c/L.
Melbourne prices are typical right now
The city average of 221.4 c/L sits inside the usual range of 205.6 to 235.7 c/L for the last 91 days. That is higher than on 38% of the last 91 days.
U91: last 30 days and the next 7
U91: last 30 days and the next 7. Reported history begins at 242.1 c/L on 14 Oct 2026. The forecast moves from 221.4 c/L on 12 Nov 2026 to 219.1 c/L on 19 Nov 2026.
Source: FuelRadar (fuelradar.com.au)
Reported city averages to Thu 12 Nov, then the FuelRadar Melbourne estimate dated Thu 12 Nov with its likely range shaded.
Lowest estimate: Sun 15 Nov, about 218.0 c/L (3.4 below today).
Chance of a rise of 5 c/L or more within 3 days: 17%
Day by day
Each day’s likely range and estimate, with the change from today’s 221.4 c/L (dashed line).
- likely 218.7 to 222.6 c/L220.1
- likely 216.4 to 223.2 c/L219.0
- likely 214.1 to 224.0 c/L218.0
- likely 212.7 to 226.4 c/L218.2
- likely 211.4 to 228.9 c/L218.5
- likely 210.1 to 231.4 c/L218.8
- likely 208.8 to 233.9 c/L219.1
Melbourne U91 forecast explained
What usually happens next
Following Melbourne's price cycle, prices usually fall: the estimate is down about 2.3 c/L to 219.1 c/L by . The modelled next low is around 218.0 c/L on . After a market-wide move, the model restated the cycle at today's price level, so it does not expect a return to the earlier low.
What could change it
Wholesale and crude signals: wholesale petrol in Melbourne fell 13.3 c/L over the five days to , and Brent crude fell 5.3% to US$93.12 a barrel. The estimate does not use them directly.
Other capitals
Each capital's latest city daily average and its call; each row opens that city's forecast. City daily averages, not station prices. Averages dated Thu 12 Nov.
When is fuel cheapest in Melbourne?
Melbourne's price cycle is paused, with no regular price jumps lately (the last jump started Fri 18 Sept): its U91 prices are following wholesale costs and the recent trend, so they tend to move a week or two after the terminal gate price.
On Fri 6 Nov the national terminal gate (wholesale) price was 211.5 c/L and the Melbourne city average 233.7 c/L, 22.2 c/L above it.
No weekday was the cheapest in most of the last 12 full weeks to : the U91 weekday averages in Melbourne were within 1.8 c/L of each other once the overall price movement is removed.
| Cheapest weekday | No set dayNo day led most of 12 full weeks |
|---|
Terminal gate prices published by the Australian Institute of Petroleum.
How accurate is the forecast?
- Forecast miss, 7 days ahead
- 4.55 c/L
- "Prices stay the same"
- 4.70 c/L
Source: FuelRadar (fuelradar.com.au)
The week-ahead forecast has not yet beaten "prices stay the same", so every estimate is labelled "Estimate only" with its average miss.
From 50,257 checks of the seven-day estimate against the reported city daily average, beside assuming prices stay the same over the same days.
| Ahead | Miss | No change | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Next day | 0.87 | 0.97 | Closer than no change |
| 3 days ahead | 2.08 | 2.37 | Closer than no change |
| 7 days ahead | 4.55 | 4.70 | About the same as no change |
| 14 days ahead | 7.89 | 8.00 | About the same as no change |
| Average miss in c/L over each horizon's replay checks. The 7-day row decides whether the call names a direction. | |||
Melbourne forecast graphics for news
How we forecast
FuelRadar has helped Australian drivers find cheaper fuel since 2020. Each estimate starts from Melbourne's reported daily city averages and how they have moved recently. A city daily average is FuelRadar's scheduled morning average of the city's reported station prices, the figure this page quotes for every capital. Where a city has a regular price cycle, the estimate projects that cycle; elsewhere it follows the recent trend, blended with the latest dated wholesale price change. The likely range widens with each day ahead.
Next-day estimates missed by 1.0 c/L on average, closer than assuming prices stay the same (1.1 c/L).
56 days checked · 18 Sept to 12 Nov
Forecast test resultsSee the Melbourne U91 forecast in the app
The 7-day Melbourne forecast, updated each day, and price alerts. Free on iPhone and Android.
App preview. Prices shown are example captures, not current reports.
Fuel price reports
What drivers paid in every state and territory in October 2026, town by town.
- Australia U91
- 242.8c/L 17.3 c/L higher than the period before
- Read the Australian reportEvery town we could rank, the capital against the rest and the cost of a litre
- Australian fuel price reportPDF · October 2026Download
- Every fuel price report
Forecast questions
When will U91 prices go down in Melbourne?
Estimate only: U91 in Melbourne is estimated to fall about 3.4 c/L by Sun 15 Nov, then sit about 2.3 c/L below today, 219.1 c/L by Thu 19 Nov (likely 208.8–233.9), from 221.4 c/L reported Thu 12 Nov. Over the last 55 days, 7-day estimates missed by 5.7 c/L on average; "no change" missed by 6.0 c/L. The dated 30-day forecast shows a likely range, not a promised low date. Check current station prices before changing when you fill.
What is the best day to buy U91 in Melbourne?
No weekday was consistently cheaper in Melbourne over the last 12 full weeks to Wed 11 Nov once the overall price movement is removed: the weekday averages were within 1.8 c/L of each other.
How accurate is FuelRadar Australia's U91 price outlook?
Not accurate enough yet to tell you to fill or wait, so we don't. Each estimate shows its likely range. From 18 Sept to 12 Nov our next-day U91 forecasts for Melbourne were off by 1.0 c/L on average over 56 days checked. That beat assuming prices wouldn't move (1.1 c/L).
What were the lowest and highest U91 prices in Melbourne in the last 90 days?
Since Fri 14 Aug, the Melbourne U91 city daily average ranged from 195.5 c/L on Wed 19 Aug to 243.1 c/L on Mon 12 Oct. It was 221.4 c/L on Thu 12 Nov.
Will petrol prices go up tomorrow in Melbourne?
Estimate only: FuelRadar's Melbourne estimate for Fri 13 Nov is 220.1 c/L, down 1.3 c/L on the 221.4 c/L reported for Thu 12 Nov. Next-day estimates for Melbourne missed by 1.0 c/L on average over 56 days checked, closer than assuming prices stay the same. Check current station prices before you buy.
When will diesel prices go down in Melbourne?
Diesel does not usually follow the petrol price cycle, so there is no regular low to wait for. The Melbourne diesel city daily average was 268.8 c/L on Thu 12 Nov, down 10.0 c/L over 30 days. Wholesale diesel in Melbourne fell 9.5 c/L over the five days to Fri 6 Nov. FuelRadar names no date for a fall: the Melbourne diesel forecast gives its day-by-day estimate and likely range.
How often is the outlook updated?
We update the forecast overnight. For anything that changed today, check the map.