Forecast
Sydney Fuel Price Prediction
See whether Sydney petrol is set to jump or ease, so you fill up before the next move. Forecast built on 90 days of price history.
30-day forecastBack-testedSydney
Buy-or-wait call · 30-day forecast
When to fill up on petrol in Sydney
We forecast the petrol price cycle from the last 90 days, so you can fill up before the next jump — and see what good timing's worth.
Where we are in the cycle
25-day cycle detected
Price today
Days to the next low
Days to the next jump
30-day price forecast
U91 • forecast from the 25-day price cycle
Today's call
Prices are near the bottom of the cycle (~166.8c) — a good window to fill (down ~11.3c over the past week).
Best day to fill up: Sunday, 7 JuneForecast price: ~166.8c/L
The next 7 days
| Day | Date | Predicted | Range | Phase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday | 7 June | 166.8c | 165.8–167.8c | trough |
| Monday | 8 June | 167.1c | 165.9–168.3c | trough |
| Tuesday | 9 June | 168.6c | 167.2–170c | rising |
| Wednesday | 10 June | 170.1c | 168.5–171.7c | rising |
| Thursday | 11 June | 171.5c | 169.7–173.3c | rising |
| Friday | 12 June | 173c | 171.1–174.9c | rising |
| Saturday | 13 June | 174.5c | 172.4–176.6c | peak |
How we make the call
We read the last 90 days of prices to find the cycle.
We map the peak-to-trough pattern for Sydney.
We forecast the next 30 days, with a confidence band that widens further out.
Never miss the bottom
Get FuelRadar Australia and we'll ping you when your fuel hits the bottom of the cycle.
Frequently asked questions
When will petrol prices go down in Sydney?
What is the best day to buy petrol in Sydney?
How accurate is FuelRadar Australia's petrol price prediction?
How to act on the forecast
Turn the forecast into today's call
The chart shows the model's best-estimate trajectory for the next 30 days. Here is how to read it into a fill / wait call.
Forecast rising → Fill up
If the model expects a 3c/L jump or more in the next week, fill up today. Timing your fill saves more than driving an extra suburb for the same petrol.
Forecast flat or falling → Worth waiting
Hold off if you can. The expected drop is small (1–2c) but it adds up — wait for the bottom of the local cycle for the biggest saving.
Confidence matters
The forecast is most accurate in cycle-driven markets (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth). In Adelaide and regional areas it leans on national trend signals and is less precise.
Methodology
How the predictor works
A short model card so you can see exactly what feeds the forecast, what time-frames it is calibrated for, and where it stops being useful.
Inputs
90 days of daily city-average prices per fuel type, terminal gate prices from the Australian Institute of Petroleum, AUD/USD exchange rates, Brent crude oil prices, and the detected position within the current local price cycle.
Algorithm
A cycle-position estimator detects where the city is in its current peak-to-trough cycle, combined with a Holt-Winters seasonal smoother for the underlying trend. The model emits a point estimate plus a 90% confidence band that widens roughly linearly with the forecast horizon.
Refresh cadence
Predictions are regenerated nightly from a single warm-cache batch job. Same-day price moves are not reflected until the next refresh — for intraday decisions, the live map is the source of truth.
Calibration
Directional accuracy (will it rise or fall in N days?) is strongest in the first 7 days for cycle-dominant markets — Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth. Magnitude accuracy degrades faster than direction. Adelaide and most regional cities have weaker cycle signals and the model falls back on national trend.
Known blind spots
Sudden retailer-led resets, refinery outages, geopolitical shocks to crude, and public-holiday demand spikes are not modelled. After such events the prediction may need 1–2 days to re-anchor on the new baseline.
Source data quality
In NSW and QLD all stations are legally required to report price changes within 30 minutes, giving near-complete coverage. In VIC the Service Victoria feed can lag retail price boards by up to 24 hours. Predictions for those states inherit the same lag.
See the predictor scored against real prices
Every nightly prediction is logged and matched against the actual published price on the day it covered. The accuracy page shows mean absolute error in cents per litre, per city and fuel type — concrete back-test numbers rather than a vague accuracy claim.
Next step
See where you sit in the cycle
This page shows the wider market. The map adds current station prices, distance, fuel type and directions — so you know whether to fill up now or wait.
Common questions
Price forecast FAQ
For cycle-dominant capital cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth), the 7-day directional accuracy (will prices rise or fall?) consistently sits above 80% on back-tests against the prior 90 days. Magnitude accuracy is lower — the predicted cents value should be read as an indicator, not a guarantee. Adelaide and regional centres rely on national trend signals and have wider confidence bands.
FuelRadar Australia app
Know when to fill up — in your pocket
See the forecast for your fuel and your servos, so you fill up before the next price jump — plus live prices when you need them.
- Today's call: fill up, wait or hold
- A heads-up before the next price jump
- Forecast the bottom of the cycle
- Cheapest servo near you, in seconds
