Fuel timing

Sydney fuel price outlook

Choose a fuel type to see whether Sydney petrol looks likely to rise, ease or hold.

30-day outlookUpdated nightlySydney

FuelRadar

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Reported prices and update times are being prepared for this page.

How to read the outlook

What to check after the forecast

The chart estimates the next 30 days. Before you fill, compare its direction with recent reports from nearby stations.

  1. Outlook rising

    If the outlook points to a meaningful jump in the next week, consider filling sooner if you need fuel.

  2. Outlook flat or easing

    If you can wait, recheck before filling a full tank. Small movements can still matter when you combine timing with a cheaper station.

  3. Confidence matters

    Petrol cycle timing is only used for Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, and only when repeated price data supports it. Diesel, LPG and other cities use trend guidance with wider uncertainty.

Methodology

How the predictor works

The forecast uses recent prices and market inputs. Its range gets wider as the date moves further away.

  1. Inputs

    90 days of daily city-average prices per fuel type, terminal gate prices from the Australian Institute of Petroleum, AUD/USD exchange rates, Brent crude oil prices, and the detected position within the current local price cycle.

  2. Forecast method

    The forecast checks the city's recent price cycle, then smooths the last 90 days of prices to estimate the next likely move. It shows a guide price and likely range, with later dates treated as less certain.

  3. Refresh cadence

    Outlooks refresh overnight. Same-day price moves are not reflected until the next refresh, so use the map for reported station prices and update times.

  4. Calibration

    The first week has the narrowest range in the five capital-city cycle markets: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth. Diesel, LPG and cities outside those five use a steadier trend model instead of peak and trough dates.

  5. Known blind spots

    Grounded market research now flags refinery outages, crude-oil moves, exchange-rate pressure and other recent events beside the forecast. Those reports explain uncertainty but cannot override the cents calculation; the model re-anchors only when verified price and wholesale data move.

  6. Source data quality

    Reporting rules and feed timing differ by state. NSW, Queensland and Victoria use government-backed reporting, while WA publishes fixed daily prices. Timing signals inherit source delays, so check the station update time before driving.

Receipts

See how the forecast is checked

  • FuelRadar matches saved forecasts with prices later reported for the same city and fuel type. Once a city has enough samples, the accuracy page publishes the average difference in cents per litre and the sample size.

Common questions

Price forecast FAQ

Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth are the five recognised petrol-cycle markets and usually have the clearest short-term signals. Diesel, LPG and other cities use trend guidance with wider uncertainty. The cents figure is a guide, not a promise.