Melbourne Premium diesel price forecast
As of Tue 10 Nov, Melbourne premium diesel averages 275.3 c/L, and FuelRadar estimates it will fall about 1.8 c/L to 273.5 c/L by Tue 17 Nov. No weekday has been reliably cheaper over the last 11 full weeks; the cheapest station, Pearl Energy Truganina, is 248.7 c/L, 26.6 c/L under the average.
Premium dieselOutlook updated
Likely to fall
Estimate only (yesterday's outlook): prices may edge down about 2.9 c/L by Thu 12 Nov, then sit about 1.8 c/L below today by Tue 17 Nov. Over the last 55 days, 7-day estimates missed by 6.1 c/L on average; "no change" missed by 6.1 c/L.Cheapest of 587 stations: 248.7 c/L at Pearl Energy Truganina · Updated
Lowest estimate: Mon 16 Nov, about 273.5 c/L (1.8 below today).
Chance of a rise of 5 c/L or more within 3 days: 7%
Alert me below 246.9
Premium diesel: last 30 days and the next 7
Premium diesel: last 30 days and the next 7. Reported history begins at 282.1 c/L on 11 Oct 2026. The forecast moves from 275.3 c/L on 10 Nov 2026 to 273.5 c/L on 17 Nov 2026.
Source: FuelRadar (fuelradar.com.au)
Reported city averages to Mon 9 Nov, then the FuelRadar Melbourne estimate dated Mon 9 Nov with its likely range shaded.
Day by day
Each day’s likely range and estimate, with the change from today’s 275.3 c/L (dashed line).
- likely 271.2 to 278.1 c/L274.5
- likely 268.6 to 278.8 c/L273.6
- likely 266.8 to 282.4 c/L273.6
- likely 265.0 to 286.0 c/L273.6
- likely 263.3 to 289.6 c/L273.6
- likely 261.4 to 293.1 c/L273.5
- likely 261.4 to 293.1 c/L273.5
Melbourne prices are typical right now
The city average of 276.5 c/L sits inside the usual range of 255.1 to 282.3 c/L for the last 90 days. That is higher than on 41% of the last 90 days.
Melbourne Premium diesel forecast explained
What usually happens next
Premium diesel prices do not follow a regular cycle, so the estimate follows the recent trend in Melbourne's daily averages. That puts it down about 1.8 c/L by .
What could change it
Wholesale and crude signals: wholesale diesel in Melbourne fell 9.5 c/L over the five days to , and Brent crude fell 5.1% to US$98.32 a barrel. The estimate does not use them directly.
Other capitals
Each capital's latest city daily average and its call; each row opens that city's forecast. City daily averages, not station prices.
| Capital | Average (c/L) | Price cycle | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 275.7 | No regular cycle | 275.7 by Tue 17 Nov |
| Brisbane | 278.0 | No regular cycle | 275.8 by Tue 17 Nov |
| Perth | 274.1 | No regular cycle | 270.3 by Tue 17 Nov |
| Adelaide | 267.7 (lowest) | No regular cycle | 265.0 by Tue 17 Nov |
| Canberra | 285.0 | No regular cycle | 286.6 by Tue 17 Nov |
| Darwin | 287.9 | No regular cycle | About the same |
| Hobart | 283.8 | No regular cycle | 281.1 by Tue 17 Nov |
When is Premium diesel cheapest in Melbourne?
No weekday was the cheapest in most of the last 11 full weeks to : the Premium diesel weekday averages in Melbourne were within 0.6 c/L of each other once the overall price movement is removed.
| 90-day low | 243.8 c/LSat 15 Aug |
|---|---|
| Today against the 90-day low | +32.7 c/LCity average 276.5 c/L on Mon 9 Nov |
From 90 days of Melbourne Premium diesel city daily averages to Mon 9 Nov.
See the Melbourne Premium diesel forecast in the app
The 7-day forecast, a fill-now-or-wait call each day and price alerts. Free on iPhone and Android.
App preview. Prices shown are example captures, not current reports.
How accurate is the forecast?
- Forecast miss, 7 days ahead
- 4.55 c/L
- "Prices stay the same"
- 4.70 c/L
Source: FuelRadar (fuelradar.com.au)
The week-ahead forecast has not yet beaten "prices stay the same", so every estimate is labelled "Estimate only" with its average miss.
From 50,257 checks of the seven-day estimate against the reported city daily average, beside assuming prices stay the same over the same days.
| Ahead | Miss | No change | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Next day | 0.87 | 0.97 | Closer than no change |
| 3 days ahead | 2.08 | 2.37 | Closer than no change |
| 7 days ahead | 4.55 | 4.70 | About the same as no change |
| 14 days ahead | 7.89 | 8.00 | About the same as no change |
| Average miss in c/L over each horizon's replay checks. The 7-day row decides whether the call names a direction. | |||
How we forecast
FuelRadar has helped Australian drivers find cheaper fuel since 2020. Each estimate starts from Melbourne's reported daily city averages and how they have moved recently. A city daily average is FuelRadar's scheduled morning average of the city's reported station prices, the figure this page quotes for every capital. Where a city has a regular price cycle, the estimate projects that cycle; elsewhere it follows the recent trend, blended with the latest dated wholesale price change. The likely range widens with each day ahead.
Next-day estimates missed by 1.1 c/L on average, no better than assuming prices stay the same (1.1 c/L).
56 days checked · 15 Sept to 9 Nov
Forecast test resultsForecast questions
When will Premium diesel prices go down in Melbourne?
Estimate only (yesterday's outlook): Premium diesel in Melbourne is estimated to edge down about 2.9 c/L by Thu 12 Nov, then sit about 1.8 c/L below today, 273.5 c/L by Tue 17 Nov (likely 261.4–293.1), from 275.3 c/L estimated for Tue 10 Nov. Over the last 55 days, 7-day estimates missed by 6.1 c/L on average; "no change" missed by 6.1 c/L. The dated 30-day forecast shows a likely range, not a promised low date. Check current station prices before changing when you fill.
What is the best day to buy Premium diesel in Melbourne?
No weekday was consistently cheaper in Melbourne over the last 11 full weeks to Sun 8 Nov once the overall price movement is removed: the weekday averages were within 0.6 c/L of each other.
How accurate is FuelRadar Australia's Premium diesel price outlook?
Not accurate enough yet to tell you to fill or wait, so we don't. Each estimate shows its likely range. From 15 Sept to 9 Nov our next-day Premium diesel forecasts for Melbourne were off by 1.1 c/L on average over 56 days checked. Assuming prices wouldn't move was just as close.
What were the lowest and highest Premium diesel prices in Melbourne in the last 90 days?
Since Wed 12 Aug, the Melbourne Premium diesel city daily average ranged from 243.8 c/L on Sat 15 Aug to 290.5 c/L on Sat 26 Sept. It was 276.5 c/L on Mon 9 Nov.
Will premium diesel prices go up tomorrow in Melbourne?
Estimate only: FuelRadar's Melbourne estimate for Wed 11 Nov is 274.5 c/L, down 0.8 c/L on the 275.3 c/L estimated for Tue 10 Nov. Next-day estimates for Melbourne missed by 1.1 c/L on average over 56 days checked, about the same as assuming prices stay the same. Check current station prices before you wait to fill.
How often is the outlook updated?
We update the forecast overnight. For anything that changed today, check the map. While the update runs, we may show the previous forecast with its date.
Fuel price reports
What drivers paid in every state and territory in October 2026, town by town.
- Australia U91
- 242.8c/L +17.3 on the period before
- Read the Australian reportEvery town we could rank, the capital against the rest and the cost of a litre
- Australian fuel price reportPDF · October 2026Download
- Every fuel price report