Melbourne E10 price forecast
As of Tue 10 Nov, Melbourne E10 averages 224.0 c/L, and FuelRadar estimates it will fall about 1.5 c/L to 222.5 c/L by Tue 17 Nov. No weekday has been reliably cheaper over the last 11 full weeks; the cheapest station, Metro Petroleum Truganina, is 199.9 c/L, 24.1 c/L under the average.
E10Outlook updated
Likely to fall
Estimate only (yesterday's outlook): prices may edge down about 2.9 c/L by Thu 12 Nov, then sit about 1.5 c/L below today by Tue 17 Nov. Over the last 55 days, 7-day estimates missed by 4.9 c/L on average; "no change" missed by 5.7 c/L.Cheapest of 248 stations: 199.9 c/L at Metro Petroleum Truganina · Updated
Lowest estimate: Thu 12 Nov, about 221.7 c/L (2.3 below today).
Chance of a rise of 5 c/L or more within 3 days: 17%
Alert me below 197.6
E10: last 30 days and the next 7
E10: last 30 days and the next 7. Reported history begins at 236.9 c/L on 11 Oct 2026. The forecast moves from 224.0 c/L on 10 Nov 2026 to 222.5 c/L on 17 Nov 2026.
Source: FuelRadar (fuelradar.com.au)
Reported city averages to Mon 9 Nov, then the FuelRadar Melbourne estimate dated Mon 9 Nov with its likely range shaded.
Day by day
Each day’s likely range and estimate, with the change from today’s 224.0 c/L (dashed line).
- likely 220.1 to 227.5 c/L222.9
- likely 217.9 to 228.2 c/L221.7
- likely 217.1 to 230.2 c/L221.9
- likely 216.3 to 232.1 c/L222.1
- likely 215.5 to 234.1 c/L222.3
- likely 214.7 to 236.0 c/L222.5
- likely 213.5 to 236.0 c/L222.5
Melbourne prices are typical right now
The city average of 224.6 c/L sits inside the usual range of 200.9 to 231.4 c/L for the last 90 days. That is higher than on 42% of the last 90 days.
Melbourne E10 forecast explained
What usually happens next
Following Melbourne's price cycle, prices usually fall: the estimate is down about 1.5 c/L to 222.5 c/L by . The modelled next low is around 221.7 c/L on . After a market-wide move, the model restated the cycle at today's price level, so it does not expect a return to the earlier low.
What could change it
Wholesale and crude signals: wholesale petrol in Melbourne fell 13.3 c/L over the five days to , and Brent crude fell 5.1% to US$98.32 a barrel. The estimate does not use them directly.
Other capitals
Each capital's latest city daily average and its call; each row opens that city's forecast. City daily averages, not station prices. Averages dated Mon 9 Nov.
When is E10 cheapest in Melbourne?
No weekday was the cheapest in most of the last 11 full weeks to : the E10 weekday averages in Melbourne were within 2.3 c/L of each other once the overall price movement is removed.
| 90-day low | 190.5 c/LWed 19 Aug |
|---|---|
| Today against the 90-day low | +34.1 c/LCity average 224.6 c/L on Mon 9 Nov |
From 90 days of Melbourne E10 city daily averages to Mon 9 Nov.
Recent Melbourne cycle lows and peaks
One cycle completed in the last 90 days, lasting 14 days from low to low, with rises of 9.6 c/L from low to peak.
| Low | Peak | Rise (c/L) | Cycle length |
|---|---|---|---|
| 193.527 Aug | 203.129 Aug | +9.6 | 14 days |
A cycle starts when the city average jumps at least 8 c/L above its low of the three days before, and at least 4 c/L more than the capitals' median moved, so a market-wide rise is not a cycle; it runs to the next such jump. Prices are the city daily average on those days.
See the Melbourne E10 forecast in the app
The 7-day forecast, a fill-now-or-wait call each day and price alerts. Free on iPhone and Android.
App preview. Prices shown are example captures, not current reports.
How accurate is the forecast?
- Forecast miss, 7 days ahead
- 4.55 c/L
- "Prices stay the same"
- 4.70 c/L
Source: FuelRadar (fuelradar.com.au)
The week-ahead forecast has not yet beaten "prices stay the same", so every estimate is labelled "Estimate only" with its average miss.
From 50,257 checks of the seven-day estimate against the reported city daily average, beside assuming prices stay the same over the same days.
| Ahead | Miss | No change | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Next day | 0.87 | 0.97 | Closer than no change |
| 3 days ahead | 2.08 | 2.37 | Closer than no change |
| 7 days ahead | 4.55 | 4.70 | About the same as no change |
| 14 days ahead | 7.89 | 8.00 | About the same as no change |
| Average miss in c/L over each horizon's replay checks. The 7-day row decides whether the call names a direction. | |||
Melbourne forecast graphics for news
The Melbourne E10 forecast board and "When to fill", sized for TV (16:9), feeds (4:5) and stories (9:16).
How we forecast
FuelRadar has helped Australian drivers find cheaper fuel since 2020. Each estimate starts from Melbourne's reported daily city averages and how they have moved recently. A city daily average is FuelRadar's scheduled morning average of the city's reported station prices, the figure this page quotes for every capital. Where a city has a regular price cycle, the estimate projects that cycle; elsewhere it follows the recent trend, blended with the latest dated wholesale price change. The likely range widens with each day ahead.
Next-day estimates missed by 1.0 c/L on average, no better than assuming prices stay the same (1.0 c/L).
56 days checked · 15 Sept to 9 Nov
Forecast test resultsForecast questions
When will E10 prices go down in Melbourne?
Estimate only (yesterday's outlook): E10 in Melbourne is estimated to edge down about 2.9 c/L by Thu 12 Nov, then sit about 1.5 c/L below today, 222.5 c/L by Tue 17 Nov (likely 213.5–236.0), from 224.0 c/L estimated for Tue 10 Nov. Over the last 55 days, 7-day estimates missed by 4.9 c/L on average; "no change" missed by 5.7 c/L. The dated 30-day forecast shows a likely range, not a promised low date. Check current station prices before changing when you fill.
What is the best day to buy E10 in Melbourne?
No weekday was consistently cheaper in Melbourne over the last 11 full weeks to Sun 8 Nov once the overall price movement is removed: the weekday averages were within 2.3 c/L of each other.
How accurate is FuelRadar Australia's E10 price outlook?
Not accurate enough yet to tell you to fill or wait, so we don't. Each estimate shows its likely range. From 15 Sept to 9 Nov our next-day E10 forecasts for Melbourne were off by 1.0 c/L on average over 56 days checked. Assuming prices wouldn't move was just as close.
What were the lowest and highest E10 prices in Melbourne in the last 90 days?
Since Wed 12 Aug, the Melbourne E10 city daily average ranged from 190.5 c/L on Wed 19 Aug to 238.3 c/L on Wed 14 Oct. It was 224.6 c/L on Mon 9 Nov.
Will e10 prices go up tomorrow in Melbourne?
Estimate only: FuelRadar's Melbourne estimate for Wed 11 Nov is 222.9 c/L, down 1.1 c/L on the 224.0 c/L estimated for Tue 10 Nov. Next-day estimates for Melbourne missed by 1.0 c/L on average over 56 days checked, about the same as assuming prices stay the same. Check current station prices before you wait to fill.
When will diesel prices go down in Melbourne?
Diesel does not usually follow the petrol price cycle, so there is no regular low to wait for. The Melbourne diesel city daily average was 273.9 c/L on Mon 9 Nov, down 6.1 c/L over 30 days. Wholesale diesel in Melbourne fell 9.5 c/L over the five days to Fri 6 Nov. FuelRadar names no date for a fall: the Melbourne diesel forecast gives its day-by-day estimate and likely range.
How often is the outlook updated?
We update the forecast overnight. For anything that changed today, check the map. While the update runs, we may show the previous forecast with its date.
Fuel price reports
What drivers paid in every state and territory in October 2026, town by town.
- Australia U91
- 242.8c/L +17.3 on the period before
- Read the Australian reportEvery town we could rank, the capital against the rest and the cost of a litre
- Australian fuel price reportPDF · October 2026Download
- Every fuel price report