Melbourne P95 price forecast
As of Tue 10 Nov, Melbourne P95 averages 244.2 c/L, and FuelRadar estimates it will fall about 0.7 c/L to 243.5 c/L by Tue 17 Nov. No weekday has been reliably cheaper over the last 11 full weeks; the cheapest station, Pearl Energy Truganina, is 209.7 c/L, 34.5 c/L under the average.
P95Outlook updated
Likely steady
Estimate only (yesterday's outlook): prices may fall about 3.1 c/L by Thu 12 Nov, then return to about today's level by Tue 17 Nov. Over the last 55 days, 7-day estimates missed by 5.5 c/L on average; "no change" missed by 5.6 c/L.Cheapest of 617 stations: 209.7 c/L at Pearl Energy Truganina · Updated
Lowest estimate: Thu 12 Nov, about 242.5 c/L (1.7 below today).
Chance of a rise of 5 c/L or more within 3 days: 18%
Alert me below 208.0Cheapest P95 in Melbourne now
Updated
P95: last 30 days and the next 7
P95: last 30 days and the next 7. Reported history begins at 257.7 c/L on 11 Oct 2026. The forecast moves from 244.2 c/L on 10 Nov 2026 to 243.5 c/L on 17 Nov 2026.
Source: FuelRadar (fuelradar.com.au)
Reported city averages to Mon 9 Nov, then the FuelRadar Melbourne estimate dated Mon 9 Nov with its likely range shaded.
Day by day
Each day’s likely range and estimate, with the change from today’s 244.2 c/L (dashed line).
- likely 241.0 to 247.8 c/L243.4
- likely 239.1 to 248.7 c/L242.5
- likely 238.0 to 251.2 c/L242.7
- likely 237.0 to 253.8 c/L243.0
- likely 235.9 to 256.2 c/L243.2
- likely 234.8 to 258.8 c/L243.5
- likely 234.8 to 258.8 c/L243.5
Melbourne prices are typical right now
The city average of 245.6 c/L sits inside the usual range of 221.7 to 252.1 c/L for the last 90 days. That is higher than on 43% of the last 90 days.
Melbourne P95 forecast explained
What usually happens next
Following Melbourne's price cycle, prices usually fall: the estimate is down about 0.7 c/L to 243.5 c/L by . The modelled next low is around 242.5 c/L on . After a market-wide move, the model restated the cycle at today's price level, so it does not expect a return to the earlier low.
What could change it
Wholesale and crude signals: wholesale petrol in Melbourne fell 13.3 c/L over the five days to , and Brent crude fell 5.1% to US$98.32 a barrel. The estimate does not use them directly.
Other capitals
Each capital's latest city daily average and its call; each row opens that city's forecast. City daily averages, not station prices. Averages dated Mon 9 Nov.
| Capital | Average (c/L) | Price cycle | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 243.6 | Cycle paused | 241.8 by Tue 17 Nov |
| Brisbane | 244.0 | Cycle paused | 242.4 by Tue 17 Nov |
| Perth | 234.0 (lowest) | Falling since its peak · 4 days since the 248.2 peak | 222.1 by Tue 17 Nov |
| Adelaide | 236.3 | Cycle paused | 234.0 by Tue 17 Nov |
| Canberra | 260.9 | Cycle paused | 260.9 by Tue 17 Nov |
| Darwin | 258.0 | Cycle paused | 258.6 by Tue 17 Nov |
| Hobart | 256.5 | Cycle paused | 255.4 by Tue 17 Nov |
When is P95 cheapest in Melbourne?
No weekday was the cheapest in most of the last 11 full weeks to : the P95 weekday averages in Melbourne were within 1.7 c/L of each other once the overall price movement is removed.
| 90-day low | 211.9 c/LWed 19 Aug |
|---|---|
| Today against the 90-day low | +33.7 c/LCity average 245.6 c/L on Mon 9 Nov |
From 90 days of Melbourne P95 city daily averages to Mon 9 Nov.
See the Melbourne P95 forecast in the app
The 7-day forecast, a fill-now-or-wait call each day and price alerts. Free on iPhone and Android.
App preview. Prices shown are example captures, not current reports.
How accurate is the forecast?
- Forecast miss, 7 days ahead
- 4.55 c/L
- "Prices stay the same"
- 4.70 c/L
Source: FuelRadar (fuelradar.com.au)
The week-ahead forecast has not yet beaten "prices stay the same", so every estimate is labelled "Estimate only" with its average miss.
From 50,257 checks of the seven-day estimate against the reported city daily average, beside assuming prices stay the same over the same days.
| Ahead | Miss | No change | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Next day | 0.87 | 0.97 | Closer than no change |
| 3 days ahead | 2.08 | 2.37 | Closer than no change |
| 7 days ahead | 4.55 | 4.70 | About the same as no change |
| 14 days ahead | 7.89 | 8.00 | About the same as no change |
| Average miss in c/L over each horizon's replay checks. The 7-day row decides whether the call names a direction. | |||
Melbourne forecast graphics for news
The Melbourne P95 forecast board and "When to fill", sized for TV (16:9), feeds (4:5) and stories (9:16).
How we forecast
FuelRadar has helped Australian drivers find cheaper fuel since 2020. Each estimate starts from Melbourne's reported daily city averages and how they have moved recently. A city daily average is FuelRadar's scheduled morning average of the city's reported station prices, the figure this page quotes for every capital. Where a city has a regular price cycle, the estimate projects that cycle; elsewhere it follows the recent trend, blended with the latest dated wholesale price change. The likely range widens with each day ahead.
Next-day estimates missed by 0.9 c/L on average, closer than assuming prices stay the same (0.9 c/L).
56 days checked · 15 Sept to 9 Nov
Forecast test resultsForecast questions
When will P95 prices go down in Melbourne?
Estimate only (yesterday's outlook): P95 in Melbourne is estimated to fall about 3.1 c/L by Thu 12 Nov, then sit about 0.7 c/L below today, 243.5 c/L by Tue 17 Nov (likely 234.8–258.8), from 244.2 c/L estimated for Tue 10 Nov. Over the last 55 days, 7-day estimates missed by 5.5 c/L on average; "no change" missed by 5.6 c/L. The dated 30-day forecast shows a likely range, not a promised low date. Check current station prices before changing when you fill.
What is the best day to buy P95 in Melbourne?
No weekday was consistently cheaper in Melbourne over the last 11 full weeks to Sun 8 Nov once the overall price movement is removed: the weekday averages were within 1.7 c/L of each other.
How accurate is FuelRadar Australia's P95 price outlook?
Not accurate enough yet to tell you to fill or wait, so we don't. Each estimate shows its likely range. From 15 Sept to 9 Nov our next-day P95 forecasts for Melbourne were off by 0.9 c/L on average over 56 days checked. That beat assuming prices wouldn't move (0.9 c/L).
What were the lowest and highest P95 prices in Melbourne in the last 90 days?
Since Wed 12 Aug, the Melbourne P95 city daily average ranged from 211.9 c/L on Wed 19 Aug to 257.9 c/L on Wed 14 Oct. It was 245.6 c/L on Mon 9 Nov.
Will p95 prices go up tomorrow in Melbourne?
Estimate only: FuelRadar's Melbourne estimate for Wed 11 Nov is 243.4 c/L, down 0.8 c/L on the 244.2 c/L estimated for Tue 10 Nov. Next-day estimates for Melbourne missed by 0.9 c/L on average over 56 days checked, closer than assuming prices stay the same. Check current station prices before you wait to fill.
When will diesel prices go down in Melbourne?
Diesel does not usually follow the petrol price cycle, so there is no regular low to wait for. The Melbourne diesel city daily average was 273.9 c/L on Mon 9 Nov, down 6.1 c/L over 30 days. Wholesale diesel in Melbourne fell 9.5 c/L over the five days to Fri 6 Nov. FuelRadar names no date for a fall: the Melbourne diesel forecast gives its day-by-day estimate and likely range.
How often is the outlook updated?
We update the forecast overnight. For anything that changed today, check the map. While the update runs, we may show the previous forecast with its date.
Fuel price reports
What drivers paid in every state and territory in October 2026, town by town.
- Australia U91
- 242.8c/L +17.3 on the period before
- Read the Australian reportEvery town we could rank, the capital against the rest and the cost of a litre
- Australian fuel price reportPDF · October 2026Download
- Every fuel price report