Darwin P95 price forecast
As of Wed 11 Nov, Darwin P95 averages 256.0 c/L, and FuelRadar expects little change by Wed 18 Nov (estimate 255.6 c/L).
P95Outlook updated
Likely steady
Estimate only: little change expected by Wed 18 Nov.Darwin prices are typical right now
The city average of 256.0 c/L sits inside the usual range of 229.3 to 261.0 c/L for the last 91 days. That is higher than on 42% of the last 91 days.
Over the last 55 days, 7-day estimates missed by 3.6 c/L on average; "no change" missed by 4.2 c/L.
P95: last 30 days and the next 7
P95: last 30 days and the next 7. Reported history begins at 264.1 c/L on 13 Oct 2026. The forecast moves from 256.0 c/L on 11 Nov 2026 to 255.6 c/L on 18 Nov 2026.
Source: FuelRadar (fuelradar.com.au)
Reported city averages to Wed 11 Nov, then the FuelRadar Darwin estimate dated Wed 11 Nov with its likely range shaded.
Lowest estimate: Sat 14 Nov, about 254.6 c/L (1.4 below today).
Day by day
Each day’s likely range and estimate, with the change from today’s 256.0 c/L (dashed line).
- likely 254.3 to 257.3 c/L255.3
- likely 253.4 to 259.3 c/L254.9
- likely 252.5 to 261.4 c/L254.6
- likely 252.1 to 263.9 c/L254.9
- likely 251.6 to 266.3 c/L255.1
- likely 251.3 to 268.7 c/L255.4
- likely 250.8 to 271.1 c/L255.6
Darwin P95 forecast explained
What usually happens next
Darwin has no regular price cycle, so the estimate follows the recent trend in its daily averages, blended with the latest five-day change in wholesale prices. That leaves it about level by .
What could change it
Wholesale and crude signals: wholesale petrol in Darwin fell 14.2 c/L over the five days to , and Brent crude fell 6.7% to US$91.68 a barrel. The estimate already blends in that wholesale change.
Other capitals
Each capital's latest city daily average and its call; each row opens that city's forecast. City daily averages, not station prices. Averages dated Wed 11 Nov.
When is P95 cheapest in Darwin?
No weekday was the cheapest in most of the last 11 full weeks to : the P95 weekday averages in Darwin were within 0.9 c/L of each other once the overall price movement is removed.
| 90-day low | 220.8 c/LTue 18 Aug |
|---|---|
| Today against the 90-day low | +35.2 c/LCity average 256.0 c/L on Wed 11 Nov |
From 91 days of Darwin P95 city daily averages to Wed 11 Nov.
Darwin this week and a year ago
Darwin P95 averaged 258.0 c/L over the seven days to 10 November 2026, 55.3 c/L above the same week a year earlier (202.7 c/L).
| Week | Average (c/L) |
|---|---|
| Latest seven days4 Nov to 10 November 2026 | 258.0 |
| Same week a year earlier5 Nov to 11 November 2025 | 202.7 |
| Change | +55.3 |
The same weekdays 52 weeks apart, from the city daily averages.
See the Darwin P95 forecast in the app
The 7-day forecast, a fill-now-or-wait call each day and price alerts. Free on iPhone and Android.
App preview. Prices shown are example captures, not current reports.
How accurate is the forecast?
- Forecast miss, 7 days ahead
- 4.55 c/L
- "Prices stay the same"
- 4.70 c/L
Source: FuelRadar (fuelradar.com.au)
The week-ahead forecast has not yet beaten "prices stay the same", so every estimate is labelled "Estimate only" with its average miss.
From 50,257 checks of the seven-day estimate against the reported city daily average, beside assuming prices stay the same over the same days.
| Ahead | Miss | No change | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Next day | 0.87 | 0.97 | Closer than no change |
| 3 days ahead | 2.08 | 2.37 | Closer than no change |
| 7 days ahead | 4.55 | 4.70 | About the same as no change |
| 14 days ahead | 7.89 | 8.00 | About the same as no change |
| Average miss in c/L over each horizon's replay checks. The 7-day row decides whether the call names a direction. | |||
Darwin forecast graphics for news
How we forecast
FuelRadar has helped Australian drivers find cheaper fuel since 2020. Each estimate starts from Darwin's reported daily city averages and how they have moved recently. A city daily average is FuelRadar's scheduled morning average of the city's reported station prices, the figure this page quotes for every capital. Where a city has a regular price cycle, the estimate projects that cycle; elsewhere it follows the recent trend, blended with the latest dated wholesale price change. The likely range widens with each day ahead.
Next-day estimates missed by 0.6 c/L on average, closer than assuming prices stay the same (0.7 c/L).
56 days checked · 17 Sept to 11 Nov
Forecast test resultsForecast questions
When will P95 prices go down in Darwin?
Estimate only: P95 in Darwin is estimated to change little, to 255.6 c/L by Wed 18 Nov (likely 250.8–271.1), from 256.0 c/L reported Wed 11 Nov. Over the last 55 days, 7-day estimates missed by 3.6 c/L on average; "no change" missed by 4.2 c/L. The dated 30-day forecast shows a likely range, not a promised low date. Check current station prices before changing when you fill.
What is the best day to buy P95 in Darwin?
No weekday was consistently cheaper in Darwin over the last 11 full weeks to Tue 10 Nov once the overall price movement is removed: the weekday averages were within 0.9 c/L of each other.
How accurate is FuelRadar Australia's P95 price outlook?
Not accurate enough yet to tell you to fill or wait, so we don't. Each estimate shows its likely range. From 17 Sept to 11 Nov our next-day P95 forecasts for Darwin were off by 0.6 c/L on average over 56 days checked. That beat assuming prices wouldn't move (0.7 c/L).
What were the lowest and highest P95 prices in Darwin in the last 90 days?
Since Thu 13 Aug, the Darwin P95 city daily average ranged from 220.8 c/L on Tue 18 Aug to 264.2 c/L on Thu 15 Oct. It was 256.0 c/L on Wed 11 Nov.
Will p95 prices go up tomorrow in Darwin?
Estimate only: FuelRadar's Darwin estimate for Thu 12 Nov is 255.3 c/L, down 0.7 c/L on the 256.0 c/L reported for Wed 11 Nov. Next-day estimates for Darwin missed by 0.6 c/L on average over 56 days checked, closer than assuming prices stay the same. Check current station prices before you wait to fill.
When will diesel prices go down in Darwin?
Diesel does not usually follow the petrol price cycle, so there is no regular low to wait for. The Darwin diesel city daily average was 283.1 c/L on Wed 11 Nov, down 6.9 c/L over 30 days. Wholesale diesel in Darwin fell 9.9 c/L over the five days to Fri 6 Nov. FuelRadar names no date for a fall: the Darwin diesel forecast gives its day-by-day estimate and likely range.
How often is the outlook updated?
We update the forecast overnight. For anything that changed today, check the map.
Fuel price reports
What drivers paid in every state and territory in October 2026, town by town.
- Australia U91
- 242.8c/L +17.3 on the period before
- Read the Australian reportEvery town we could rank, the capital against the rest and the cost of a litre
- Australian fuel price reportPDF · October 2026Download
- Every fuel price report