Idalia P95 price forecast

As of Tue 10 Nov, Idalia P95 averages 251.1 c/L, and FuelRadar estimates it will fall about 1.5 c/L to 249.6 c/L by Tue 17 Nov.

P95

Likely to fall

Estimate only (yesterday's outlook): prices may edge down about 1.5 c/L by Tue 17 Nov.
City average (estimate) · 251.1 c/L
Expected by 249.6 c/L

Lowest estimate: Mon 16 Nov, about 249.6 c/L (1.5 below today).

Alert me when it drops
Compare Idalia stations Follow TownsvilleFree email when prices start rising

P95: last 30 days and the next 7

P95: last 30 days and the next 7. The forecast moves from 251.1 c/L on 10 Nov 2026 to 249.6 c/L on 17 Nov 2026.

Source: FuelRadar (fuelradar.com.au)

Shaded area shows the estimated range.

Reported city averages to Mon 9 Nov, then the FuelRadar Townsville estimate dated Mon 9 Nov with its likely range shaded, shifted 0.8 c/L higher for Idalia's local prices.

Day by day

Each day’s likely range and estimate, with the change from today’s 251.1 c/L (dashed line).

  1. likely 248.9 to 254.8 c/L250.7
  2. likely 247.5 to 256.5 c/L250.4
  3. likely 246.6 to 258.3 c/L250.2
  4. likely 245.8 to 260.2 c/L250.0
  5. likely 245.0 to 262.0 c/L249.8
  6. likely 244.2 to 263.8 c/L249.6
  7. likely 244.2 to 263.8 c/L249.6
Download today and the next 7 days (CSV)

Idalia P95 forecast explained

Where prices sit

Idalia uses the Townsville P95 outlook, adjusted by 0.8 c/L for Idalia's own price history.

What usually happens next

Partway down the cycle, prices usually fall: the estimate is down about 1.5 c/L to 249.6 c/L by . After a market-wide move, the model restated the cycle at today's price level, so it does not expect a return to the earlier low.

What could change it

Wholesale and crude signals: the national wholesale petrol price fell 13.7 c/L to 211.5 c/L over the five days to , and Brent crude fell 1.0% to US$93.70 a barrel. The estimate does not use them directly.

Capital cities

Each capital's latest city daily average and its call; each row opens that city's forecast. City daily averages, not station prices. Averages dated Mon 9 Nov.

Capital cities
CapitalAverage (c/L)Price cycleCall
Sydney243.6Cycle paused241.8 by Tue 17 Nov
Melbourne245.6Cycle paused243.5 by Tue 17 Nov
Brisbane244.0Cycle paused242.4 by Tue 17 Nov
Perth234.0 (lowest)Falling since its peak · 4 days since the 248.2 peak222.1 by Tue 17 Nov
Adelaide236.3Cycle paused234.0 by Tue 17 Nov
Canberra260.9Cycle paused260.9 by Tue 17 Nov
Darwin258.0Cycle paused258.6 by Tue 17 Nov
Hobart256.5Cycle paused255.4 by Tue 17 Nov

See the Idalia P95 forecast in the app

The 7-day forecast, a fill-now-or-wait call each day and price alerts. Free on iPhone and Android.

Download on the App StoreGet it on Google Play
FuelRadar app Today screen with the fill-up call for Brisbane and the cheapest Unleaded 91 within 15 km
FuelRadar app fuel map with Unleaded 91 prices around Brisbane, each marked Cheap, Average or Pricey

App preview. Prices shown are example captures, not current reports.

How accurate is the forecast?

Forecast miss, 7 days ahead
3.68 c/L
"Prices stay the same"
4.11 c/L

Source: FuelRadar (fuelradar.com.au)

Over 440 week-ahead checks the forecast missed by less than assuming prices stay the same.

Average miss by days ahead, beside assuming prices stay the same
AheadMissNo changeResult
Next day0.570.70Closer than no change
3 days ahead1.611.90Closer than no change
7 days ahead3.684.11Closer than no change
14 days ahead7.127.64Closer than no change
Average miss in c/L over each horizon's replay checks. The 7-day row decides whether the call names a direction.
How we check accuracy

How we forecast

FuelRadar has helped Australian drivers find cheaper fuel since 2020. Each estimate starts from Townsville's reported daily city averages and how they have moved recently. A city daily average is FuelRadar's scheduled morning average of the city's reported station prices, the figure this page quotes for every capital. Where a city has a regular price cycle, the estimate projects that cycle; elsewhere it follows the recent trend, blended with the latest dated wholesale price change. Based on the Townsville P95 outlook, adjusted by 0.8 c/L using local price history. The likely range widens with each day ahead.

Next-day estimates missed by 0.5 c/L on average, no better than assuming prices stay the same (0.5 c/L).

30 days checked · 10 Oct to 8 Nov

Forecast test results

Forecast questions

When will P95 prices go down in Idalia?

Estimate only (yesterday's outlook): P95 in Idalia is estimated to edge down about 1.5 c/L, to 249.6 c/L by Tue 17 Nov (likely 244.2–263.8), from 251.1 c/L estimated for Tue 10 Nov. The dated 30-day forecast shows a likely range, not a promised low date. Check current station prices before changing when you fill.

What is the best day to buy P95 in Idalia?

There is no fixed best day for Idalia. Compare current reported station prices and their update times. A recent high or a lower estimate does not confirm a cheaper date.

How accurate is FuelRadar Australia's P95 price outlook?

Not accurate enough yet to tell you to fill or wait, so we don't. From 10 Oct to 8 Nov our next-day P95 forecasts for Townsville were off by 0.5 c/L on average over 30 days checked. Assuming prices wouldn't move was just as close.

Do higher prices mean they will fall soon?

A recent high does not confirm a turnaround. Compare the reported movement with the estimated range. If that range still includes today's price, a fall is not established. Check current station prices before deciding to wait.

How often is the outlook updated?

We update the forecast overnight. For anything that changed today, check the map. While the update runs, we may show the previous forecast with its date.