Melton P95 price forecast
As of Tue 10 Nov, Melton P95 averages 249.0 c/L, and FuelRadar estimates it will fall about 0.5 c/L to 248.5 c/L by Tue 17 Nov. No weekday has been reliably cheaper over the last 11 full weeks; the cheapest station, 7-Eleven Melton East, is 246.9 c/L, 2.1 c/L under the average.
P95Outlook updated
Likely steady
Estimate only (yesterday's outlook): prices may fall about 3.3 c/L by Thu 12 Nov, then return to about today's level by Tue 17 Nov. Over the last 55 days, 7-day estimates missed by 5.9 c/L on average; "no change" missed by 5.9 c/L.Cheapest of 10 stations: 246.9 c/L at 7-Eleven Melton East · Updated
Lowest estimate: Thu 12 Nov, about 247.2 c/L (1.8 below today).
Chance of a rise of 5 c/L or more within 3 days: 18%
Alert me below 245.1
P95: last 30 days and the next 7
P95: last 30 days and the next 7. Reported history begins at 262.8 c/L on 11 Oct 2026. The forecast moves from 249.0 c/L on 10 Nov 2026 to 248.5 c/L on 17 Nov 2026.
Source: FuelRadar (fuelradar.com.au)
Reported city averages to Mon 9 Nov, then the FuelRadar Melton estimate dated Mon 9 Nov with its likely range shaded.
Day by day
Each day’s likely range and estimate, with the change from today’s 249.0 c/L (dashed line).
- likely 245.7 to 253.2 c/L248.1
- likely 243.8 to 254.5 c/L247.2
- likely 242.8 to 257.0 c/L247.5
- likely 241.9 to 259.6 c/L247.9
- likely 240.9 to 262.0 c/L248.2
- likely 239.8 to 264.5 c/L248.5
- likely 239.8 to 264.5 c/L248.5
Melton prices are typical right now
The city average of 250.5 c/L sits inside the usual range of 225.1 to 256.8 c/L for the last 90 days. That is higher than on 42% of the last 90 days.
Melton P95 forecast explained
What usually happens next
From the top of the cycle, prices usually fall: the estimate is down about 0.5 c/L to 248.5 c/L by . The modelled next low is around 247.2 c/L on . After a market-wide move, the model restated the cycle at today's price level, so it does not expect a return to the earlier low.
What could change it
Wholesale and crude signals: the national wholesale petrol price fell 13.7 c/L to 211.5 c/L over the five days to , and Brent crude fell 5.1% to US$98.32 a barrel. The estimate does not use them directly.
Capital cities
Each capital's latest city daily average and its call; each row opens that city's forecast. City daily averages, not station prices. Averages dated Mon 9 Nov.
| Capital | Average (c/L) | Price cycle | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 243.6 | Cycle paused | 241.8 by Tue 17 Nov |
| Melbourne | 245.6 | Cycle paused | 243.5 by Tue 17 Nov |
| Brisbane | 244.0 | Cycle paused | 242.4 by Tue 17 Nov |
| Perth | 234.0 (lowest) | Falling since its peak · 4 days since the 248.2 peak | 222.1 by Tue 17 Nov |
| Adelaide | 236.3 | Cycle paused | 234.0 by Tue 17 Nov |
| Canberra | 260.9 | Cycle paused | 260.9 by Tue 17 Nov |
| Darwin | 258.0 | Cycle paused | 258.6 by Tue 17 Nov |
| Hobart | 256.5 | Cycle paused | 255.4 by Tue 17 Nov |
When is P95 cheapest in Melton?
No weekday was the cheapest in most of the last 11 full weeks to : the P95 weekday averages in Melton were within 1.9 c/L of each other once the overall price movement is removed.
| 90-day low | 215.5 c/LWed 19 Aug |
|---|---|
| Today against the 90-day low | +35.0 c/LCity average 250.5 c/L on Mon 9 Nov |
From 90 days of Melton P95 city daily averages to Mon 9 Nov.
See the Melton P95 forecast in the app
The 7-day forecast, a fill-now-or-wait call each day and price alerts. Free on iPhone and Android.
App preview. Prices shown are example captures, not current reports.
How accurate is the forecast?
- Forecast miss, 7 days ahead
- 5.75 c/L
- "Prices stay the same"
- 5.96 c/L
Source: FuelRadar (fuelradar.com.au)
The week-ahead forecast has not yet beaten "prices stay the same", so every estimate is labelled "Estimate only" with its average miss.
From 526 checks of the seven-day estimate against the reported city daily average, beside assuming prices stay the same over the same days.
| Ahead | Miss | No change | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Next day | 1.34 | 1.44 | Closer than no change |
| 3 days ahead | 2.71 | 3.26 | Closer than no change |
| 7 days ahead | 5.75 | 5.96 | About the same as no change |
| 14 days ahead | 9.18 | 9.37 | About the same as no change |
| Average miss in c/L over each horizon's replay checks. The 7-day row decides whether the call names a direction. | |||
Melton forecast graphics for news
The Melton P95 forecast board and "When to fill", sized for TV (16:9), feeds (4:5) and stories (9:16).
How we forecast
FuelRadar has helped Australian drivers find cheaper fuel since 2020. Each estimate starts from Melton's reported daily city averages and how they have moved recently. A city daily average is FuelRadar's scheduled morning average of the city's reported station prices, the figure this page quotes for every capital. Where a city has a regular price cycle, the estimate projects that cycle; elsewhere it follows the recent trend, blended with the latest dated wholesale price change. The likely range widens with each day ahead.
Next-day estimates missed by 0.9 c/L on average, closer than assuming prices stay the same (1.0 c/L).
56 days checked · 15 Sept to 9 Nov
Forecast test resultsForecast questions
When will P95 prices go down in Melton?
Estimate only (yesterday's outlook): P95 in Melton is estimated to fall about 3.3 c/L by Thu 12 Nov, then sit about 0.5 c/L below today, 248.5 c/L by Tue 17 Nov (likely 239.8–264.5), from 249.0 c/L estimated for Tue 10 Nov. Over the last 55 days, 7-day estimates missed by 5.9 c/L on average; "no change" missed by 5.9 c/L. The dated 30-day forecast shows a likely range, not a promised low date. Check current station prices before changing when you fill.
What is the best day to buy P95 in Melton?
No weekday was consistently cheaper in Melton over the last 11 full weeks to Sun 8 Nov once the overall price movement is removed: the weekday averages were within 1.9 c/L of each other.
How accurate is FuelRadar Australia's P95 price outlook?
Not accurate enough yet to tell you to fill or wait, so we don't. Each estimate shows its likely range. From 15 Sept to 9 Nov our next-day P95 forecasts for Melton were off by 0.9 c/L on average over 56 days checked. That beat assuming prices wouldn't move (1.0 c/L).
What were the lowest and highest P95 prices in Melton in the last 90 days?
Since Wed 12 Aug, the Melton P95 city daily average ranged from 215.5 c/L on Wed 19 Aug to 263.2 c/L on Wed 14 Oct. It was 250.5 c/L on Mon 9 Nov.
Will p95 prices go up tomorrow in Melton?
Estimate only: FuelRadar's Melton estimate for Wed 11 Nov is 248.1 c/L, down 0.9 c/L on the 249.0 c/L estimated for Tue 10 Nov. Next-day estimates for Melton missed by 0.9 c/L on average over 56 days checked, closer than assuming prices stay the same. Check current station prices before you wait to fill.
When will diesel prices go down in Melton?
Diesel does not usually follow the petrol price cycle, so there is no regular low to wait for. The Melton diesel city daily average was 275.8 c/L on Mon 9 Nov, down 6.9 c/L over 30 days. The national wholesale diesel price fell 9.7 c/L over the five days to Fri 6 Nov. FuelRadar names no date for a fall: the Melton diesel forecast gives its day-by-day estimate and likely range.
How often is the outlook updated?
We update the forecast overnight. For anything that changed today, check the map. While the update runs, we may show the previous forecast with its date.
Fuel price reports
What drivers paid in every state and territory in October 2026, town by town.
- Australia U91
- 242.8c/L +17.3 on the period before
- Read the Australian reportEvery town we could rank, the capital against the rest and the cost of a litre
- Australian fuel price reportPDF · October 2026Download
- Every fuel price report